CMB$

CMBS. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities. Although the prepayment risk is lower than a RMBS, CMBSecurities are not standardized. Given the default and reports which will be coming out as of the next week, a pullback in the markets should not surprise you a bit. Rather, anticipate it, judge it and watch if this next downtick will test bottoms [or either of the double bottoms in our case haha] either way we probably will re-test them. But at the least, calculate the spread between each day of next week and our most recent historical bottom .i.e. the lowest pt in the past 6 months. Calculate the spread for each day between that low-point over the 5 days of m-fri, compose the mean……hypothecate that number on a daily basis for m-fri and then a quick do the same for week ending Dec 5th.

Just talking to myself.

Happy Turkey Day!

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

Exactly.

But I have to point out something that upset me today: “The president-elect set no goals for reducing the federal deficit.” I”m neither, nor nowhere near, an econ or political guru, but this sounds to me like a potential long term neglect which could spur a tank 8 yrs from Jan 09 ( 2017).

But in the meantime, short-term outlook (over the course of the next 8 yrs) could be absolutely amazing or absolutely…well ….not so amazing. Im still looking for this 9525 break in the DJIA and this 1006 break on the S&P. Up until that point i’ll capitulate and concern myself with pre-positioning liquid over the next 60-90 days to take advantage of a potential opportunity. BUT. And this is a large BUT. If not….a 1565 DJIA could quite be possible. If you noticed, I mentioned liquid. positioned. By this i mean both ways. I’ll position fund liquid in a manner that allows cap gains on the downside (going short) or cap gains on the upside. I gave you my resistance #s above for what I believe cap gains can be achieved @ on an up-tick. But I wont disclose those #s on my strategie’s downtick.

Besides that I think this could look like a neckline week ending tomorrow people, markets closed on Thanksgiving, Happy Thanksgiving all! .. Heads and shoulders are still occuring, breakouts are abound. Watch sectors and your volatility on a minute by minute basis tomorrow, consider it the last day of the week. But remember one thing…..bargains are aplenty on Black Friday in the market as well……I know it’s Thanksgiving, but @ least prospect potential bargains for analysis on Monday, lol. Sunday morning we get our past-week analysis and forecasted monday analysis for monday morning. Happy Holidays, peaceeeeeee!!!!

-Ozzie.

Dow Jones Industrial Average = 1565

Don’t get me wrong. I am a Bull amongst Bulls.

I happen to be quite undertsanding about this correction which is taking place in the market. No I’m not happy that we are down about 44% from our all time high which was in the ballpark of 14,000 on the price-weighted Dow. [I trade and analyze based on the S&P, but I write this article in terms of the Dow since it is so widely acclaimed, being as it is the 2nd oldest index after the DJTA]. But I understand that @ 14000 we were overbought and that’s fine, because that’s how we make money, we oversell ourselves (like right now) and then buy in @ the technical bottom, overbuying our way back to astronomical averages, but that’s what bulls do, go hard or go home. Now, I have to pour some salt on ur wounds. In my opinion, and you can quote me on this- If the Dow doesnt break 9,625, and if the S&P 500 doesnt break 1,006 during the course of 2009, I can safely see the Dow dropping to 1,565. Yah, I said it. BUT, If the Dow and S&P break 9625 and 1006, respectively, I foresee large institutional buying, coupled with a bull-run uptick for day traders and swing-traders (such as myself), notice I did not say rally, that word drives me fuckin nuts.

And dont come @ me saying that stocks are cheap right now. Im in the business of sales & trading equities for clients and I dont tell my clients equities are cheap right now. Yes, cheap relative to a few mos. ago, but we’re still holding the reset button and we’re still dropping, we’re not @ the bottom. We’re bottom fishing and if you are really smart, you would capitulate, cease all buying and let the hook (Index) sink to the bottom. Increase your liquid standpoint and position your liquid so when we start hooking fish @ the bottom we’ll have enough line to let em’ run, tire em out, not get greedy, hedge our upside and our downside,  and pull the fuckers onboard for some realized capital gains. thats it im done, close your browser.

Writing Sample

Passion

 

                What felt like a blur of one exceptionally long day, with memories of waking up Monday morning June 16^th and returning home Friday  June 20^th was the reality of the first week of the next chapter of my life. This chapter of my life I speak of is what I had ultimately worked for, for the past 8 years of my life, joining a top-tier Global Investment Bank as a 21 year-old bachelor in New York City.

               

                My first impressions of my co-workers was actually on Friday June 13^th, the Friday before we commenced work with Credit Suisse. I was able to meet up with my co-workers and get to know a few of them before we started and it definitely helped Monday morning, coming into a new territory and seeing some familiar friendly faces. Through the course of the week I was able to learn a good amount about my fellow colleagues , and what I realized at the end of the day was that this company, this position and this industry attracts a breed of it’s own, it’s a big shock factor getting to know so many new people with so many of the same personality and character traits as yourself.

               

                Tom Camoia and Mark Stappenbeck stand out in my mind first and foremost. Their personalities were that of a Salesman, a more subtle Corporate Salesman, not the Car salesman. Their presentations were straight and to the point, able to answer almost every question in a quick and accurate fashion. I respect their body language, humor and the confidence which they exude. I hope to grow and establish a long-term career with Credit-Suisse and form a passion within myself for my particular department as Tom and Mark have clearly shown me what it takes to succeed in Credit Suisse, Passion.

BlizzEndiVision.

Lookin’ forward to the results of the vote on July 8th for the merger of Vivendi/Blizzard-Activision (In an $18.8bn deal, mind you) forming the newly known company as Activision-Blizzard, the world’s largest video game publisher, taking EA (Electronic Arts) off of its long held pedestal.